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Weekend Box Office Overview 9-26
By Vince Palomarez | Images property of respective holders.
The Corpse Bride
September 26 Box Office Overview
1. Flightplan
($24.6 million, 1st week of release): When I looked at the box office reports
yesterday and saw that Flightplan scored the win over Corpse
Bride you could say that I was a bit surprised and I’m sure Warner
Bros. was as well. Despite all the negative reviews (it only has a 34% positive
rating according to rottentomatoes.com) and the lure of Tim Burton’s
follow up to the classic The Nightmare Before Christmas, Flightplan
still managed to attract a big enough audience to give it a $4 million lead
over The Corpse Bride. I have to say I’m really shocked by
this. Jodie Foster’s name on any film gives it a certain credibility
that someone like Catherine Zeta-Jones for instance, can never provide.
Audiences respect anything she does and the $24 million total this weekend
proves that. I can’t help but look at Flightplan and see
too many similarities to her last film Panic Room. Eventually audiences
will as well so don’t expect a repeat performance for Flightplan
or even a minor drop next weekend. Look for this film to take a nose dive
next week.
2. Tim Burton’s
The Corpse Bride ($20 million, 1st week of release): While
Tim Burton may not have gotten the first place finish he was expecting with
his follow up to The Nightmare Before Christmas, he can at least
be happy that Corpse Bride’s opening weekend was half of
what Nightmare made in its entire theatrical run. With the lack
of any kind of family film out there I was really expecting this to be a
huge moneymaker. Upon seeing the film this weekend (stay tuned for my review
of this tomorrow) I think I understand why it had a mediocre opening; the
film may be based on a fable, but the execution and look of the film was
way too dark for younger children. I know it wasn’t Burton’s
intention and this is just his normal style, but there was a big difference
between this and Nightmare that families shied away from, leaving
only Nightmare fans to flock to the theaters. Perhaps good word
of mouth can get around keeping this film from dropping the usual 40% most
films do in their second week. Still $20 million is a very nice opening
for a quirky family film, but….I was just expecting a lot more.
3. Just Like Heaven ($9.8 million, $29.9 million total): One film
where word of mouth won’t help is this film. Dropping 40% in it’s
second week, Just Like Heaven should be content with whatever they
manage to gross from here on out. Just like I said last week, the only reason
it claimed the number one spot in its initial run was due to the lack of
decent films in the theater. With fall upon us and Oscar season right around
the corner, more and more big name releases will be coming to a theater
near you, which means, if you’re film isn’t pushed down our
throats and there is no good word of mouth in your favor, you’re film
is a sinking ship. I don’t think Dreamworks was expecting much with
this film by releasing it in September so odds are they’ll just be
content to watch the film drop and slowly recoup its budget. Then it’s
off to DVD world where they’ll make some cash.
4. Roll Bounce
($8 million, 1st week of release): This film really slipped off my radar.
I had figured that it was going to do well considering the cast and interesting
premise, but I was expecting it to appear in the lower half of the top 10
eventually gaining an audience week after week. $8 million is an excellent
first week for a film with a relatively low budget. I can almost guarantee
that Roll Bounce is going to be one of those films that drops very
little as the weeks go by. It will never move up, but it’s going to
gain enough of an audience to keep it hanging around the top 10 eventually
capping out at around $30-$35 million.
5. The Exorcism of
Emily Rose ($7.5 million, $62 million total): Well, if
this film is anything it’s consistent. Two weeks in a row Emily
Rose has dropped 49% and with every week that passes it’s going
to drop even more. Horror films have such a short shelf and here is a case
where word of mouth can be a bad thing. I have heard nothing but negative
reviews on this film, so I'd expect drops like this every week. Emily
had its two week run in the spotlight and should be happy with its $62 million
take so far. Emily Rose has taken back almost double of what it
cost to make the film and let’s just hope that Screen Gems doesn’t
decide to make a sequel based on the success it had in its first two weeks
(not that you really can make a sequel of a movie based on a true story,
but it’s Hollywood, it wouldn’t surprise me).
Hoping more from Lord of War
6. Lord of War
$4.9 million ($17 million total)
7. The 40 Year-Old
Virgin $4.2 million ($96 million total)
8. The Constant
Gardener $2.2 million ($27 million total)
9. Transporter 2
$2.1 million ($39 million total)
10. Cry Wolf
$2.1 million ($7 million total)
The combined weekend totals of the films in the bottom half of the Top 10
don't even add up to Flightplan's weekend take and I think that
can give you a hint to where these films are going. Lord of War,
Transporter 2 and Cry Wolf all suffered big drops this
weekend.
While Transporter 2's drop (46%) is no surprise being in its 4th
week of release, Lord of War (47%) and Cry Wolf (52%)
have a lot to worry about; with Lord of War being the big loser
here. In two weeks Lord of War has only taken in a total of $17
million which is a long ways away from recouping its $50 million budget.
By dropping another 47% with a $5 million take this film will be out of
theaters in 2 weeks, which isn't a good sign for Nicolas Cage's career.
Cry Wolf, on the other hand, shouldn't be too sad about their huge
drop. Sure they were probably expecting to do a little better, but with
a budget of only $1 million, this film is already a hit for Rogue Pictures
and you can guarantee a sequel is on the way.
It's nothing but good news for the other two films in the bottom half. The
40 Year-Old Virgin inched closer to the big $100 million mark this
weekend. Taking in another $4 million and only dropping an incredible $28%
in its sixth week of release, it should reach that mark by the end of the
week. The Constant Gardener may not be enjoying the success 40
Year-Old Virgin is, but good word of moth is keeping it around long
enough to make its money back and perhaps give it some much needed Oscar
buzz. Although the film has been out for more than four weeks, it started
out with a really low theater count which is why its numbers are a little
deceiving. Sure $2 million isn't a weekend total to promote in the papers,
but the film has stayed very consistent over the past few weeks and shows
some staying power with only a 38% drop. The Constant Gardener
won't have the legs that March of the Penguins did, but expect
it to stick around the bottom half for at least the next 2 or 3 weeks.
Last weeks predictions:
1. Tim Burton's The Corpse Bride $40 million
2. Flightplan $28 million
3. Just Like Heaven $9 million
4. Lord of War $7 million
5. The Exorcism of Emily Rose $7 million
Like I mentioned earlier, I really thought the cult following from The
Nightmare Before Christmas and the fact that it was marketed as a family
film was going to equal monster business for TB's Corpse Bride.
So who would've expected Flightplan to do so well? Perhaps there
is a chunk of moviegoers that I have totally taken for granted….or maybe
there are a lot more Jodie Foster fans than I had believed. Oh well, I think
a lot of people made the same mistake that I did, but the one mistake that
I am kicking myself over is giving zero respect to Roll Bounce.
For some reason I had an idea that it would it would perform as well as
it did. So why the heck did I think Lord of War was going to beat
it?!?! I guess that's the gambles you take when you try to predict these
things.
I didn't get a lot of predictions from you guys (where are you?), but the
few I did had similar predictions to mine. Congrats go out to Keith Ferries
this week for being the closest to predicting the weekend totals. Plus he
was the only one that guessed Roll Bounce would be in the top 5.
Keith's picks:
1. Corpse Bride $22 million
2. Flightplan $19 million
3. Just Like Heaven $10 million
4. Exorcism of Emily Rose $8 million
5. Roll Bounce $6 million
A half-naked Jessica Alba will push Into the Blue into the upper
charts.
1. Serenity
$22 million
2. Into the Blue
$18 million
3. Tim Burton's Corpse Bride $13 million
4. Flightplan $12 million
5. A History
of Violence $11 million
Let's try something new this week, I want to hear from you guys what you
think the totals are. Agree with me? Disagree? E-mail (vince@canmag.com)
me your totals and I'll post the person who comes closest to the actual
totals.
Stay tuned for updates.
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Vince Palomarez
Sources: Images property of respective holders.
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