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Weekend Box Office Overview 10-03
By Vince Palomarez | Images property of respective holders.
Flightplan surprises at the box office.
October 3 Box Office Overview
1. Flightplan
($15 million, $46 million total): Man……people must really love
Jodie Foster. I’m not one to always follow whatever the critics say
is good or isn’t, but if a film gets a 37% approval rating from rottentomatoes.com,
odds are the film’s going to be bad. But there are times when America
disagrees with the media and this is certainly one of those times. One big
explanation for Flightplan’s continued stay at the top spot
has to be some positive word of mouth/buzz. Most films drop 45-50% their
second week, but Flightplan dropped only 38% from last week which
means audiences are coming back for repeat viewings. This trend may continue
for another week unless Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were Rabbit
can bring back that family audience that The Corpse Bride failed
to do.
2. Serenity
($10 million, 1st week of release): You can look at the first week results
for Joss Whedon’s directorial debut based of his short lived TV series
Firefly in two ways: 1) The $10 million take for what Universal
hoped would be beginning of a new Sci-Fi franchise is way below expectations
and thus is a failure at the box office or 2) $10 million is a decent take
for a film budgeted at a meager $39 million and the majority of that from
the loyal Whedon fans so this film can still find an audience with good
word of mouth. In this instance (and because I’m sort of biased) I’m
leaning on #2 for the correct explanation on why Serenity didn’t
shoot off to the number one spot this weekend. Serenity already
had huge weight on it’s back to begin with by having a shirt lived
TV series that was buried by Fox and aired out of order, a very weak add
campaign that explained nothing about the film and a cast that included
no well-known stars. With many positive reviews, it’s hard for me
to understand why only the die hard fans showed up. I had figured the die-hards
would show up, but I was also expecting the Sci-Fi crowd, who are waiting
for the next big franchise to show up, to make their presence and boost
up those numbers. Serenity is a film though that I hope (and expect)
to see word of mouth carry this film to some respectable numbers the next
few weeks. It may never reach the top spot, but good word of mouth should
prevent it from suffering through the usual 50% drops. Expect Serenity to
make its money back and hopefully a little more to warrant a sequel.
3. Tim Burton’s The
Corpse Bride ($9.7 million, $32 million total): Perhaps
Tim Burton should hire a priest to give last rights to his latest film because
this weekend signaled the beginning of the end. You may be asking yourself,
“What the hell is he thinking? It’s still in the top 5 and $9
million isn’t bad at all.” But you need to look ahead and behind
the scenes to understand. First off, Corpse Bride suffered a huge
drop of 49% in only its second week of wide release (the first week was
only in New York and L.A.) which shows that the die hard fans have come
and gone and they aren’t coming back and it doesn’t look like
they are telling any of their friends to either. Also with this release
of Wallace and Gromit this coming weekend, families have the option
of a more light hearted stop motion film that appeals to children more than
Tim Burtons slightly demented creations. Still with a $32 million take so
far and a low budget to begin with, you can guarantee that Corpse Bride
will make its money back and then enjoy the cult status that Nightmare
Before Christmas had on DVD.
4. A History
of Violence ($8.2 million, $8.9 million total): Like Serenity,
here is another film that I was kind of expecting to perform a little bit
better. Don’t get me wrong, $8.9 million for a film that has a small
number of theaters it’s in (1,340 compared to Corpse Bride
at 3,204), but I was expecting the Oscar and critical buzz behind it to
boost it up a few million this weekend. A few things might have prevented
this though like director David Cronenberg’s reputation for weird
off beat films or perhaps the audiences unfamiliarity with what this film
really is (Is it an action film? Is it a thriller?). I don’t expect
it to hurt in the long run though. A History of Violence is one
of those films that needs that word of mouth buzz to get people to the theaters
to see it. I expect to see that buzz help out the film in the next few weeks
with very little drops week to week and an extended stay in the top 5. Hopefully
all the people that went to see Flightplan will shift their attention
this way and make my prediction correct.
5. Into the Blue
($7 million, 1st week of release): I looked back on my predictions last
week and noticed that I had this film pegged for a #2 spot in the top 5
and a pretty big opening weekend. Well, you can chalk that up to the fact
that at times I can be very clueless about the industry I love to follow.
I saw this film and thought that the appeal of two attractive leads and
the action factor were going to bring in the teen crowd and some decent
dollars, but apparently the teens as well as the adults decided to take
the weekend off, hence the week box office totals compared to last week.
I’m not expecting this to turn Into the Blue into a winner.
In all honesty I expected this film to have a great opening weekend followed
by a steep tumble down the top 10.
Greatest Game Ever Played
6. Just Like Heaven $6.1 million ($38 million total)
7. The Exorcism of
Emily Rose $4.4 million ($68 million total)
8. Roll Bounce
$4 million ($12.6 million total)
9. The Greatest
Game Ever Played $3.7 million (1st week of release)
10. The 40 Year-Old
Virgin $3.1 million ($101 million total)
Not too much surprise here. I think the biggest has to be the support Just
Like Heaven is getting. Sure it dropped down to the bottom half of
the top 10 and brought in only $6 million, but it dropped only 36% and compared
to the top 5 films a $6 million take isn't too bad at all. It's still a
far cry away from recouping its $60 million production budget, but if it
continues its low drop from week to week it should make enough to come close
to that number and make the rest back in the DVD market.
The lack of a good horror film continues to propel The Exorcism of Emily
Rose to respectable numbers. Dropping only 40% from last week, Emily
took in another $4 million giving it a $68 million total overall. For a
film with a production budget of only $19 million this is a huge success
for Screen Gem pictures and like I said before I wouldn't doubt it if the
success doesn't force Screen Gems to greenlight a sequel.
One big surprise in the bottom half of is the debut of another "Overcoming
the odds" Disney sports film, The Greatest Game Ever Played. The
little advertised film centered on the story of golfer Francis Ouimet's
dramatic 1913 U.S. Open win. Premiering in only 1,000 theaters the film
took in a solid $3.7 million and while not moving up in the charts, it should
expect similar success that past Disney sports films like The Rookie
and Miracle experienced.
Roll Bounce on the other hand is about to get bounced out of the
top 10 completely. After a surprisingly good start the film dropped 46%
and in to the number 8 spot. Not very good news, but with a $12 million
total gross and a very low budget, Roll Bounce can still survive
out of the top 10 scrapping in whatever dollars are left.
Rounding out the top 10 is a film that after 7 weeks will finally be leaving
us next week. The 40 Year-Old Virgin finally reached the $100 million
mark this weekend certifying its status as a blockbuster. The film showed
very strong staying power refusing not to go out of the top 10 until it
hit that $100 million mark. It was a great 2 month run and can now gear
up and enjoy even more success on DVD.
Last weeks predictions:
1. Serenity $22 million
2. Into the Blue $18 million
3. Tim Burton's Corpse Bride $13 million
4. Flightplan $12 million
5. A History of Violence $11 million
Sometimes I let my heart take over instead of listening to my voice of reason and this week was further evidence of that. I have to say I was surprised by the lack of total box office dollars this week and figured since the bad month of September was over, audiences were going to start flocking in, but obviously I was wrong. Still that was no excuse to give Into the Blue the kind of props I did and I should be harassed about that. I don't regret my decision on making Serenity the number 1 film though. I figured the Whedon and Sci-Fi loyalists would come out in droves, but obviously they had something better to do this weekend (or I'm kidding myself and thinking their number is a lot bigger than it really is).
Since no one submitted any predictions there were no winners this week. Where are you guys? Let me hear what you think (or do you just like me making a fool of myself with all my inaccurate predictions?).
Can Serenity give us a second go?
1. Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were Rabbit $18 million
2. Flightplan $9 million
3. Serenity $8 million
4. A History of Violence $7 million
5. In Her Shoes $6
million
Let's try something new this week, I want to hear from you guys what you
think the totals are. Agree with me? Disagree? E-mail (vince@canmag.com)
me your totals and I'll post the person who comes closest to the actual
totals.
Stay tuned for updates.
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Vince Palomarez
Sources: Images property of respective holders.
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