DOOM
October 3 Box Office Overview
1. Doom
$15.3 million (1st week of release): I think it’s finally time to
stop comparing wrestler-turned-actor The Rock to Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The guy has yet to bring in the box office dollars that Arnold used to.
Most of this is due to the evolution of movie viewers and the disappearance
of the old school 80’s action fan. Doom’s $15 million
opening shows that there is a small number of us left (oh yes, I count myself
among this group), but not enough to make the difference we once did in
the 80’s when films like Cobra, Commando, Rambo
and Predator were box office gold. Despite the number one finish,
this is a pretty weak opening for a film Universal believed was going to
be one of their bigger hits of the fall. Doom just follows the
trend of unsuccessful video game inspired films. When is Hollywood going
to wake up and realize that there is no money in these films? Audiences
prefer to play the game than to watch it in the theater, plus the movie
itself hardly resembles the original story of the game. The reception to
both the Rock and Doom can’t be a good sign for the makers
of the upcoming video game inspired film Spy Hunter, which also
stars the Rock. These next two films could really be the end to the Rock’s
big screen career. He’ll always have a long shelf life like fellow
wrestlers Hulk Hogan and Roddy Piper in direct to DVD movies, but his big
screen career will be kaput if he can’t land a decent hit.
2. Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story $9.3 million (1st week of
release): Seeing as how I’d never even heard of this movie prior to
Friday, really shows the drawing power Dakota Fanning has over America.
It seems like anything she touches these days turns to gold. If you look
at her last 3 films (War of the Worlds, Hide and Seek,
Man on Fire), none of which had glowing reviews, they all made
money and odds are she had a lot to do with it. America can’t get
enough of that gum filled smile and too mature for her age act and studios
are coming to the realization that it equals box office dollars. Will that
be enough to make this film a moneymaker? The odds aren’t really in
her favor if you look at the opening numbers. I would say about ¾’s
of the total take this weekend was because her name was attached to this
film and she has a loyal fan base, but now that they’ve checked it
out this film won’t get the repeat business it needs to be a hit.
Dreamer won’t make enough to recoup its $32 million production
budget, but it will more than likely be a moneymaker once it makes its way
to the DVD markets where families will eat it up.
3. Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit $8.7 million
($44 million total): Looking at the numbers for this and Dreamer
proves one thing; the family audience is alive and thriving. How else can
you explain Dreamer’s $9 million opening and Wallace
and Gromit’s miniscule 24% drop from last week? I’m sure
Wallace and Gromit’s success has a lot more to do than families
(good word of mouth, loyal cult following, positive reviews), but I think
the family factor is a major part of that success. The one thing studios
love about the family audience is that if your movie appeals to a family,
that’s a guaranteed 4 paid tickets. Multiply that by the number of
families in America and you can understand why Disney is a box office juggernaut.
Wallace and Gromit may not have the big numbers that a lot of other
family films had, but they are making enough to follow in the footsteps
of their predecessor, Chicken Run. Chicken Run was able
to hang around and draw that family crowd in eventually topping out around
the $100 million mark and if Wallace and Gromit follows the same
pattern they should eventually hit that mark as well. The upcoming Chicken
Little may take away some of Wallace’s audience, but
if it’s able to survive that hit, it’ll be fine.
4. The Fog $7 million ($21.5 million total): Well, I seem to be
on a serious losing streak when trying to predict how badly horror films
will fall in their second week. 37.9% may not be something to dance in the
streets about, but compared to other recent horror films, 38% is a great
number. The Fog looks to be following in the footsteps of another
horror film I thought was going to tank in its second week, The
Exorcism of Emily Rose. That film also started out its
run in the top spot then took an average drop its next week eventually finishing
out it’s run with a $74 million total. The Fog may not get
that far, but with a small budget ($18 million) the film has already made
its money back and should go on to at least finish with no lower than $45
million.
5. North Country
$6.5 million (1st week of release): I’m pretty sure Warner Bros. was
hoping that the success Charlize Theron garnered for Monster would
translate into box office dollars for their Oscar hopeful North Country.
Too bad they failed to realize that this film came off looking more like
a movie on the Lifetime channel than an Oscar nominated film. Just because
she won an Oscar the previous year doesn’t really mean it will translate
to box office dollars. While Charlize is a very good actress she still doesn’t
have the name power that a Julia Roberts or even a Reese Witherspoon has
and that may prevent the causal movie fan from checking out her films. I
don’t see things looking up for North Country either. There
is a lot of tough competition going into November and North Country
really needed a big opening weekend to prevent it from disappearing in the
coming months; which doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.
Elizabethtown finds strength in those loyal to Cameron Crowe.
6. Elizabethtown
$5.7 million ($18.9 million total)
7. Flightplan
$4.7 million ($77 million total)
8. In Her Shoes $3.9
million ($26 million total)
9. A History
of Violence $2.7 million ($26 million total)
10. Two for the Money $2.4 million ($20.7 million total)
What really surprised me here was how poorly Elizabethtown did
this weekend. The reviews haven't been the best, but I really expected Cameron
Crowe's previous success's to give this film a shot in the arm in terms
of box office. The film took a 46% drop from last week, which puts it second
in the biggest drop of the week category with Two for the Money
(which is in its third week of release compared to Elizabethtown's
second). Elizabethtown seems to be mirroring Almost Famous in terms
of box office performance, but I don't think this is going to be the cult
like darling that Almost Famous was when it hit the DVD market.
Flightplan on the other hand continues to leave me scratching
my head. People still want to see this film and judging by the small 27%
drop a majority of its audience is repeat viewers. With a $77 million total
in 5 weeks there is still a slim shot at hitting the $100 million mark and
since I've been betting against this film so far, I might have to change
my outlook and admit that it might get there.
In Her Shoes and A History of Violence are both enjoying
the success of being critical darlings. While neither film is a monster
success, they still are managing to stick around the top 10 with very small
drops from week to week. They are pretty much in a dead heat in terms of
total box office and I expect that pattern to continue for at least the
next few weeks with both films eventually topping out at around $35 million.
One interesting thing to note from looking at the top 10 is that New Line
has a crisis on its hand with Domino.
In its second week of release, Domino fell completely out of the
top 10 dropping 49% with a weekend take of only $2.3 million. The budget
was never officially reported, but with the huge advertising campaign and
fairly big name cast I'm guessing this wasn't a cheap film to make. I hate
to sound like a broken record, but this just supports my idea that studios
need to refrain from pushing a films release date back. Once word gets out
that its date is pushed back you can pretty much guarantee a quick death.
I've seen very few films buck this trend and studios fail to learn this
lesson.
Last weeks predictions:
1. Doom $14 million
2. North Country $11 million
3. Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit $9 million
4. Elizabethtown $8 million
5. The Fog $6 million
I failed to factor in Dakota Fanning's appeal to audiences and because of
that my predictions were way out of whack. I was close with my dollar figures
for Doom, Wallace and The Fog, but figured the
lifetime crowd was going to make more of a presence to support their girl
Charlize. And again, my heart sometimes overtakes my brain when making my
predictions, because I gave way too much credit to Elizabethtown
due to my loyalty to Cameron Crowe. It's hard to be objective when working
on these things and it really shows here. Oh well…..maybe someday I'll get
it right and then I can finally have some bragging rights.
Can another horror steal the box office next weekend?
1. The Legend of
Zorro $23 million
2. Saw II
$15 million
3. Doom $8 million
4. The Weather
Man $8 million
5. Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit $7 million
What do you think? Agree with me? Disagree? Let me know. I want to hear
what you guys think. Send me an e-mail (vince@canmag.com)
and let me know.
Stay tuned for updates.
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