Saw II takes the box office.
October 31 Box Office Overview
1. Saw
II $30.5 million (1st week of release): If you really
think about it, this wasn’t too much of a shocking surprise. I think
the biggest shocker here is that this was the first film in a couple of
months to score more than a $20 million dollar opening. I’m sure the
majority of you (me included) figured that The Legend of Zorro
was going to claim the top spot, but this was Halloween weekend and naturally
audiences were going to see anything horror related. Some of you might still
be scratching your head wondering how this film got so popular and to find
the answer to that, look no farther than the ever growing DVD market. Saw
had a moderately successful run at the box office ($55 million total), but
gained a very strong cult following once it hit the DVD market selling close
to 4 million copies. That cult audience added in with the Horror hungry
Halloween crowd was more than enough to beat out an sequel that was a few
years too late. Despite Saw’s monster weekend, I really don’t
expect it to continue on this pace. It won’t drop like last week’s
number one film Doom (73% drop from last week; more on that later),
but it should drop around 40%. I don’t think the folks at Lions Gate
really care. With a production budget of only $4 million, Saw II
has already made back what it cost to make this film seven fold.
2. The Legend of
Zorro $16.5 million (1st week of release): The trailer
was attached to almost every movie, they advertised the hell out of it on
television, all the stars were promoting this thing to death and all it
could muster was $16.5 million? Some people may think that $16 million isn’t
too bad, but in Sony’s eyes, it’s time to go into disaster mode.
Counting on this to be one of their bigger hits of the fall was Sony’s
first mistake. The second and most important is my aged old theory that
sequels that are released more than 5 years after the original will always
fail. When a sequel takes more than 5 years to come out, what usually happens
is the budget gets out of control because the stars want more money and
back end points, the scripts gets rewritten a few hundred times to compensate
for the stars suggestions. In trying to capitalize on what made the original
so good, studios tend to go a bit overboard in trying to make it bigger,
badder and better than the original. The end result turns out to be a over
budgeted cliché filled version of the original. Disagree with me?
Look at Men in Black II, Be Cool, Miss Congeniality
2, and XXX 2 as recent examples. This wasn’t the sole
reason. I’m sure the slew of negative reviews and seeing that they
included Zorro’s son this time kind of pushed audiences away. Fortunately
Zorro seems to be doing ok in the worldwide market, but the disappointing
box office in the U.S. has to be a huge blow in the nether regions to Sony.
3. Prime $6.4 million (1st week of release): Judging by the $10
million dollar difference between the 2nd and 3rd place films, I think you
get the point that that majority of audiences only went to see two films
this weekend. In a way, this was a huge positive for the small film Prime,
which was only played on 1,800 screens (compared to 3,520 for Zorro).
Here is a film that flew under the radar all the way up to its release,
had a fairly known cast and some decent reviews and managed to capitalize
on the audiences disdain for everything else that’s out right now.
I guarantee you that Prime won’t enjoy a long stay in the
top 5 (or even the bottom 5), but with budget around $22 million, odds are
it will make its money back.
4. Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story $6.3 million ($17.5 million
total): Out of all the films that were in the top 5 last week, did you really
think Dreamer was going to be the top one remaining? I sure as
hell didn’t, which is why I still can’t understand the popularity
of Dakota Fanning. Dakota should capitalize on her fame right now and mass
market herself ala the Olsen twins. Those two girls made a few hundred million
by showcasing their lack of acting talent in direct to video movies, think
of how much Dakota will make. It’s hard to imagine Hollywood’s
newest “it” girl I sonly 11 years old, but if you look at her
recent rack record, her name equals box office gold. Do you honestly think
people went to see Dreamer because of how great the story was?
Maybe people who’ve seen the film once did, but the odds are they
saw Dakota Fanning’s name attached and that was all they needed. It
wouldn’t surprise me to see Dakota Fanning become the first child
actor to get $20 million. She’s still got a few more years left to
soak up as much pre-puberty fame as she can before she hits that awkward
phase Haley Joel Osment hit a few years back (has anyone seen him lately?).
5. Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit $4.4 million
($49.8 million total): It is now time to say goodbye to Wallace and
Gromit. After four solid weeks in the top 5, Wallace and Gromit
have finally hit the wall. Next week’s release of Chicken Little
will more than likely suck whatever family audience is left away from Wallace
and Gromit leaving for dead. It’s going to be hard to challenge
the family juggernaut known as Disney and judging from the 48% drop from
last week, I don’t think Wallace and Gromit even has a shot.
I think it has gone as far as it’s going to possibly go and should
be fairly happy with the $50 million it has taken in so far.
Doom
6. The Weather
Man $4.3 million (1st week of release)
7. Doom
$4 million ($22.8 million total)
8. North Country
$3.6 million ($12.2 million total)
9. The Fog $3.3 million ($25.5 million total)
10. Flightplan
$2.6 million ($81 million total)
I think the biggest shocker here was how far Doom fell from last
week. I'm pretty sure most folks thought it was safe to say this film was
going to drop at least 45%, but I'm sure no one would even think of it dropping
74%. Universal must be pulling their hair out right about now wondering
what went wrong. Things were looking so good in August with the success
of The 40-Year Old
Virgin and were shaping up to be even better with the
positive buzz that surrounded Serenity
and the popularity of the Rock. Reality set in and (sadly) Serenity
bombed and the Rock's popularity seems to be in serious decline. Being a
huge action fan I was really hoping that the Rock was going to be able to
bring back the days of the 80's action films were one man was able to take
on an army of hundreds, but audiences seemed to have moved on. A few more
bombs like this and the Rock may have to stop distancing himself from his
wrestling background and beg Vince McMahon for his job back.
Some people might also be questioning the box office power of another big
star, Nicolas Cage. This week's other major release couldn't find the success
that Saw II, The Legend of Zorro and Prime did
grossing a paltry $4 million. More than likely Paramount is going to blame
the lack of screens (1,510) as the reason for the lackluster opening, but
odds are the main factor was the negative reviews. With the weak opening
for The Weather Man and the disaster that was Lord of War,
this is the second bomb in less than three months for Mr. Cage and if National
Treasure wasn't a moneymaker, Hollywood would be signing the certificate
for the death of his career.
The rest of the bottom 5 was pretty uneventful with the only thing of mention
being the continued success of Flightplan. This film has been out
for more than 6 weeks and has managed to survive despite a number of big
name releases trying to steal its thunder. This is probably the last week
we'll see it in the top 10, but with a box office total of $81 million I'm
pretty sure the makers of Flightplan aren't really complaining.
Last weeks predictions:
1. The Legend of Zorro $23 million
2. Saw II $15 million
3. Doom $8 million
4. The Weather Man $8 million
5. Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit $7 million
It always makes me laugh when I look back at the predictions I made last
week. Sure I had a reasonable explanation on why the films finished where
they did, but the thing that scratches my head is, "why didn't I think about
that when I made my predictions?" I think most of the time, my heart gets
in the way of the rationale side and I try to go with the safe choice......either
that or I just have no clue what I'm doing (and judging from the fact that
I said Zorro was going to gross $23 million, I may not have a clue).
I think out of all the incorrect guesses I made; the only one I can excuse
myself for is Doom. I'm pretty sure no one thought it was going to drop
as bad as it did. Next time, I think I'm going to have to stop listening
to my heart and go with the rational side and what would be a better time
to start than now.
Jarhead
1. Chicken Little
$29 million
2. Saw II $17 million
3. Jarhead
$16 million
4. The Legend of Zorro $9 million
5. Dreamer $4 million
I want to hear from you guys what you think the totals are. Agree with me?
Disagree? E-mail (vince@canmag.com)
me your totals and I'll post the person who comes closest to the actual
totals.
Stay tuned for updates.
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