Flightplan refused to leave quietly.
Finishing the 2005 Box Office
One of the biggest issues with trying to predict
the rest of the [fall/winter] 2005 box office is that we have been wrong
so many times this year. If you take a look at our articles posted during
the beginning of 2005 you will be reminded that we considered 2005 one of
the best years for film. There were so many big hitters that we repeatedly
found ourselves disappointed in the less-than-predicted box office returns.
But then pops up those few small films, ala Exorcism
of Emily Rose and Flightplan,
who, though having par reviews, performed way beyond predicted; but not
anywhere near Mel Gibson's surprise blockbuster last year. Which brings
up another point-- 2004 started out with The Passion of the Christ,
a film that skyrocket the box office receipts before the year was even ready
to begin.
Here is the goal: $520 million by the night of December 31st. Can we get
there? Wouldn't get the hopes up, but there is a nice mix of films that
could throw up some guaranteed numbers plus a few surprises along the way.
Aeon Flux could find a large audience in theatres. Throwing in the Mix
Though these films are not expected to have high
box office numbers, there is a good chance that at least a few surprise
audiences or forecasts and create box office receipts to help close the
gap on $520 million. What films are these? Lets have a look:
- Jarhead
(Nov 11th)
- A war film that leaves out the battle. Could an anti-war film be
what people need?
- Derailed
(Nov 11th)
- Flightplan has shown that audiences are seeking a thriller;
even a par one. Can Derailed keep the pace?
- Walk the Line
(Nov 18th)
- A solid biopic can pull respectable receipts. Does Joaquin Phoenix
have audience pull?
- Just Friends
(Nov 23rd)
- 2005 still has a comedic void that has remained open since Wedding
Crashers. This Ryan Reynolds film will be the first
attempt to fill it.
- Aeon Flux
(Dec 2nd)
- The film already has a large following from the animated series
and is one of the most opened films on CanMag.Com. If it passes the
critics, Aeon Flux could pull startling numbers.
- Memoirs of a Geisha
(Dec 9th)
- Early positive buzz could carry this film to respectable numbers.
- The Producers
(Dec 21st)
- The best thing to happen to those who missed the Broadway play.
Early reviews claim the film is hilarious, which should help the film
pick up a nice share of moviegoers. Will Ferrell helps.
- Fun with
Dick and Jane (Dec 21st)
- Jim Carrey is allowed to return to somewhat-silly comedy co-starring
with Téa Leoni. Though Carrey comedies usually hit, this one
has begun with mixed reviews.
- Munich
(Dec 23rd)
- The film is a thriller from Steven Spielberg on a factual event.
These three elements could spell box office hit.
- The Ringer
(Dec 23rd)
- A comedy being led by Johnny Knoxville. This film could hit or miss...
we are guessing hit.
- The New World
(Dec 25th)
- Epic films used to mean epic numbers. 2005 has put this myth in
its place.
- Hoodwinked!
(Dec 25th)
- The Weinstein Company surprises us with their first CG animation.
Can't say anything till the trailer though.
Though I am sure I missed some titles, that is the mix that I feel will
at least help push up the box office numbers a bit. However, these films
have no chance in getting to the $520 million alone... time to bring in
the big hitters.
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire is a guarantee. The Starting Line Up
Though I am sure the films mentioned above will
help push Hollywood closer to the previous year's box office numbers, it
will be up to three films on whether or not 2005 can make a last ditched
effort to bring its receipts up to that of 2004. Unless you have been living
under a rock, you should already know which three films they are.
Harry Potter and
the Goblet of Fire
Without a doubt Goblet of Fire should come out swinging its opening weekend.
The third Potter film, Prisoner of Azkaban, was able to pull a record breaking
$93.7 million opening weekend. However, the film suffered serious drops
in ticket sales immediately after the first week. Was Prisoner too dark
a film for families to bring their kids to [or back to]? If so, what does
a PG-13 rating mean for Goblet of Fire?
Our prediction: Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire may be one of the best
books in the series, and definitely supports an older reader base. Potter
fans rejoiced at the announcement of a PG-13 rating and, with Potter fever
at a current high, Goblet of Fire should have the entire movie-going
market targetted.
Add the fact that Goblet of Fire has received tons of extremely positive
early reviews, and we could see a sequel that [again] shatters its predecessor.
The Chronicles
of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe
Having read the Chronicles of Narnia books, one might think that
the targetted audience may be a bit young for most. But then we are given
an impressive teaser, and full, movie trailer that slaps LOTR-ish
goodness all over this baby.
Andrew Adamson has convincingly created animals that interact and talk to
humans. Now throw these beasts into action and you could really have something
here. Did I mention that the trailers looked FANTASTIC.
The Chronicles of Narnia should pick up a portion of the Potter
families that find the PG-13 rating too high for a second visit.
King Kong
Before yesterday, the only thing we knew about King Kong was a
teaser poster, a teaser trailer and a lot of kind words from Peter Jackson
and cast. But then they hit us with the real 8th Wonder of the World, a
featurette that shows entirely new clips, interviews and action from King
Kong. What did we think? Can we please see this film now!!!
Everything shown in the featurette looked excellent and the running time,
somewhere near three hours, shows that Universal is more than confident
in their new furry friends-- Peter Jackson and Kong.
So, can we get to $520 million by the year's out? Hard to say, you have
been one hard to predict audience this year. I may actually have to do a
study and point out how the lower rated films actually pulled in higher
box office receipts. What is happening out there? Flightplan was
able to outdue Serenity?
Now that is just a sin.
Agree or disagree? Hit me up and give me your own predictions on the fall/winter
box office.
Stay tuned for updates.
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