Chicken Little
November 7 Box Office Overview
1.
Chicken Little $32 million ($80.7 million total): If there was any doubt that Disney couldn't survive without Pixar, it was all thrown out the door once Chicken Little finished in the top spot for the second week in a row. The folks at Disney have to be dancing through the magic kingdom with this great start. They won't admit it, but there was a lot of nervous people wondering what would happen if this movie bombed. You have to thin that if Chicken Little bombed Disney would be crawling back to the folks at Pixar with a blank check and sheet of paper to write down whatever demands they want. Now, they can rest a little easier knowing that they can succeed without them. This is only one film and time will eventually give us a clearer answer as to how successful Disney will be without Pixar, but for at least a few months Disney can breathe a sigh of relief. With over $80 in two weeks there is no doubt this film will hit the $100 million mark and by getting a head start before Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire is released, Chicken Little should have a good chance of hitting the $150 million mark .
2.
Zathura $14 million (1 st week of release): The first week numbers of Zathura was going to give you a clear picture of if this film was going to be a success or a total bomb. With next week's release of Harry Potter, Zathura needed a big weekend to keep it afloat before Harry and the rest of the Hogwarts clan sucked up all of the family audience for the next month. You can look at the $14 million opening and think that it was decent if not solid opening for a $65 million dollar film; the truth is the folks at Sony were hoping for a lot more. They advertised the hell out of this film, hired a director (Jon Favreau) coming off of one of the biggest hits of last year (Elf), released it on more than 3,200 screens and all they could muster was $14 million? Odds are the folks at Sony were hoping to make at least $10 million more than it made and the thing is it's only going to get worse. With Chicken Little showing it has a strong audience and Harry Potter's release next week, Zathura is going to suffer some major drops in business in the next few weeks.
3.
Derailed $12.8 million (1 st week of release): You can thank the publicity circus that is Jennifer Aniston's private life for the $13 million it took in this weekend. Why do I say that? The critics butchered this film in their reviews and while that doesn't always translate to bomb status, in this case it had a great deal to do with it. With the lack of advertising up until a few weeks before the release, audiences were going to have to rely on what the critics think since there was absolutely no word of mouth going for it otherwise. Even when Aniston was out doing publicity for this film it was more about her breakup with Brad Pitt than hyping the film. With production budget of only $22 million, this isn't a bad thing for the Weinstein's. It may not have been the kind of opening they were hoping for their first film sans Miramax, but it's a fairly positive sign that the movie will make its money back. Even though it will make its money back, expect this one to fall big time next week.
4.
Get Rich or Die Tryin' $12.5 million ($18.2 million total): There are at least four reasons why this total was disappointing to Paramount . 1) Was it a smart move releasing this on a Wednesday instead of Friday? I don't think so. I can't help, but think that the opening number for this film should've been bigger. 2) Sure it was shown on only 1,600 screens, which is half of what Chicken Little and Zathura are being screened on, but I was expecting at least $18-$20 million. This total was nowhere near 8 Mile which debuted with a $50 million opening weekend, but was screened in 1,000 more theaters. 3) Again the critic's voice might've had a say in whether this film was going to be a hit or a miss. Get Rich was slammed by the critics and those negative reviews kept the movie house crowd away, which was the complete opposite for 8 Mile and a major reason why that film did so well. 4) There were a few bits of negative publicity attached to this film the week of its release that had an impact. There was the billboard depicting 50 with a gun and a microphone in his hands that was taken down. Also during the first few days of its release there was a shooting at one of the theaters resulting in a man's death. That really can't help a film that's trying to attract a wide range of audience in. Despite all the negativity, something tells me Get Rich won't suffer a big drop next week. I think the low theater count will help keep the theaters fairly packed and lower the drop percentage for next week.
5.
Jarhead $12.2 million ($47 million total): Despite monster business last week this film was expected to take a bit of a dip this week. I don't think a 55% drop from last week was the number they were thinking of. It had to happen, eventually the slew of negative reviews and bad word of mouth was going to catch up to it and much to Universal's dismay, it happened now. I mentioned last week that despite the negative reviews, this was going to be a film that audiences were going to check out no matter what. There was a lot of A-list talent attached to it so people were going to be curious to see what it was about. The thing is, once the curious crowd is gone you're left with the word of mouth and repeat viewers crowd and in Jarhead's case there wasn't a whole lot of them. The curious crowd made sure that the word of mouth crowd knew that this wasn't a very good film and those people stayed away from this film like the plague. This is a huge blow to Universal who was really hoping that Jarhead could be the early Oscar front runner, instead they'll be lucky to recoup the $75 million they spent o making Jarhead.
Saw II
6. Saw II $9.4 million ($74 million total)
7. The Legend of Zorro $6.6 million ($39.5 million total)
8. Prime $3.9 million ($19 million total)
9. Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story $3.8 million ($29 million total)
10. Pride and Prejudice $2.8 million (1st week of release)
Looking at the bottom half of the top 5, three small films continued their success scraping up whatever audience the big dogs left over, one small debut made a killing on only 200 screens and what was thought to be a big blockbuster continued it’s path to total bomb.
With the top 5 films accounting for more than $82 million at the box office there wasn’t going to be too much left for all the other films out there. Saw II, Prime and Dreamer managed to wrangle up whatever was left over and enjoy themselves a decent weekend at the box office. Saw II may have dropped 44% from last week, but still managed to take in more than $9 million bringing its total box office to $74 million. For a film with a production budget of only $4 million that is huge business. Prime and Dreamer may not be enjoying the huge success that Saw II is, but by hanging around week after week they are inching ever closer to enjoying life in the black. If both films continue the low percentage drops week to week, they’ll make their money back and more in the next two weeks.
One film that wishes they could have even a small part of the success those three are having is The Legend of Zorro. The film continues its huge dive down the charts dropping another 35% and taking in only $6 million. The film is still a long way from recouping its $75 million and odds are unless the film manages to hang around till the end of the year, it won’t even come close to that number.
And rounding out the top 10 is a film that had little distribution but a ton of success. Released on only 215 screens, Pride and Prejudice managed to kill at the box office taking in close to $3 million this weekend. That’s a per screen average of $13,000 which is the tops of any film in the top 10. There is no way they would get these types of numbers if it was a major release, but by taking its time and slowly increasing the theater count, Pride and Prejudice should be on its way to a successful box office run.
Last weeks predictions:
1. Zathura $28 million
2. Chicken Little $25 million
3. Get Rich or Die Tryin’ $18 million
4. Jarhead $17 million
5. Derailed $12 million
Ok, so another week goes by and I still can't come close to guessing the correct totals. Fear not, there is a sign of hope! I may not have gotten the order right, but for the first time in what seems like ages, all the films I predicted to finish in the top 5 are there. Hallelujah!! There is hope and I can only build off of this until one day, hopefully in the near future, I can get correctly predict the top 5 and brag about it till I'm blue in the face.
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
1. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $75 million
2. Walk the Line $25 million
3. Chicken Little $20 million
4. Zathura $9 million
5. Get Rich or Die Tryin’ $9 million
I want to hear from you guys what you think the totals are. Agree with me?
Disagree? E-mail (vince@canmag.com)
me your totals and I'll post the person who comes closest to the actual
totals.
Stay tuned for updates.
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