Goblet of Fire shows that great films usually win the box office battle.
November 21Box Office Overview
1. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $101.4 million (1st week of release): Everyone knew that Goblet of Fire was going to finish in the top spot this weekend, but the question was how much was it going to make. If you look back at my predictions from last week, I had pegged Potter to make around $75 million mostly due to the recent downturn in business at the box office. Little did I know if you promote the hell out of a film enough and advertise it as the blockbuster it’s supposed to be, odds are it’s going to make a killing at the box office. I have to give props to Erika Husich for telling me how wrong I was by bringing to my attention the past three opening weekends for the potter franchise and how they’ve increased with each release. Thanks for the heads up Erika! Looking at the opening numbers, Warner Bros, hit it out of the ballpark. Folks, to put in to perspective how huge this opening weekend was for Goblet of Fire all you need to know is this, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire’s opening was the fourth biggest opening of all time behind Spider Man ($114.8 million), Star Wars Episode III – Revenge of the Sith ($108.4 million) and Shrek 2 ($108 million). The fourth chapter in the chronicles of Harry’s life at Hogwarts is the darkest and that may have been a major factor in the films success. With more violence and dark themes than any of the other films, Goblet of Fire was able to attract a more adult audience who held back from seeing the other films due to the lighter themes. With the Thanksgiving weekend coming up and a lack of any major releases, expect Goblet of Fire to mow down the competition again and possibly have a shot at reaching the $200 million mark by its second week..
2. Walk the Line $22.4 million (1st week of release): Everyone knew that Goblet of Fire was going to have a monster opening, but the question at hand was if there was going to be anything leftover for anyone else. If you were a film that’s been out for a couple of weeks the answer to that was a big no (more on that later), but for this weekends other new release, Walk the Line, the answer was a big yes. With a ton of Oscar buzz behind it as well as a major advertising campaign, Walk the Line was guaranteed a pretty good opening. Walk the Line shares a lot of similarities with last year’s biopic, Ray. Both films had a ton of hype behind them due to the Oscar worthy performances of their leads, cost about the same to make as well as the fact that the deaths of both Ray Charles and Johnny Cash were still fresh in the minds of fans. The opening totals of Ray ($20 million) and Walk the Line are almost identical with latter having the slight advantage and odds are you can expect them to have similar total gross (Ray finished it’s theatrical run with a $75 million total) by the time Walk the Line’s run in theaters ends.
3. Chicken Little $14.7 million ($99 million total): With Goblet of Fire and Walk the Line accounting for more than $123 million in ticket sales, other films were going to drop, but if you told me that six of the top 10 films were going to drop 55% or higher from last week, I would’ve told you that you were crazy. Seems like I’m the crazy one for thinking that because every film took a huge hit this weekend and Chicken Little was first in line. After enjoying two weeks in the top spot Chicken Little took a nose dive in the top 10 dropping 53% from last week. I get the sense that Disney isn’t too worried about this. They had known about Goblet of Fire’s opening for quite some time and they were counting on scoring two big early weeks before taking a big hit and that’s exactly what happened. Still the film brought its total to $99 million and should easily hit the $100 million mark in the next few days on its way to eventually capping out at around $130 million.
4. Derailed $6.5 million ($21.8 million total): With the glut of family films in theaters right now and the lack of interest in all the other dramas/thrillers out there, odds are there was going to be someone there to scoop up the remains and Derailed was just the film to do it. In its second week of release, the Clive Owen/Jennifer Anniston thriller was the only film in the top 10 (aside from Pride and Prejudice) to not drop more than 50% from last week, but it still took a decent size hit, falling 46% from last week. $6 million is by no means reason to dance out in the streets, but it does bring the film closer to recouping its $22 million production budget and for a film that was slammed by critics as badly as this was; I guarantee you the Weinstein’s are not complaining.
5. Zathura $5.1 million ($20.2 million total): The folks at Sony made a huge mistake releasing this film around the time that they did. With Goblet of Fire and Chicken Little taking away the majority of the family audience away, Zathura was going to see its audience shrink. And shrink it did to the tune of a 62% drop from last week. With weak reviews and so much strong competition out there, this wasn’t a surprise at all. In just two weeks Zathura has only taken in $20 million which is a long ways away from recouping the $65 million it cost to make it. With Goblet of Fire’s success and more family films on the way, Zathura is as good as dead.
Jarhead
6. Jarhead $4.8 million ($54 million total)
7. Get Rich or Die Tryin’ $4.4 million ($24.5 million total)
8. Saw II $3.9 million ($79.8 million total)
9. The Legend of Zorro $2.3 million ($42.8 million total)
10. Pride and Prejudice $2.1 million ($5.9 million total)
Not a lot to add that I haven’t already said. I think the biggest news here is how badly these films dropped from last week. With the exception of Pride and Prejudice, the films in the bottom half of the top 10 dropped an average of 60% from last week. I have not seen the bottom five drop this bad since I’ve been reporting on the box office grosses. Movie fans are getting smarter with each year and with the information, buzz and reviews so easily accessible on the web (and of course at canmag.com), audiences know what to stay away from. Sure they’ll always be that crowd of people that will check out a film on its first week, but after that the word will have already gone out and doom is evident. Hopefully this will be a wake up call to studios that you can’t just release crap and expect us to run out and see it. Just because a film has an A-list star and big budget doesn’t guarantee it’s going to be a monster. Audiences are smarter now so play to that. Give us quality films like Goblet of Fire, Kiss Kiss Bang Bang, Good Night and Good Luck and give them the promotion and hype that they deserve. Ok, I’m done preaching.
The biggest winner in the bottom half has to be Pride and Prejudice. This film continues to do great business despite it being on only 221 screens. In its second week Pride dropped only 26% making it the best performing film not released this week. So far the latest Jane Austen adaptation has gone on to gross a total of $5 million and should see its numbers rise as its theater count increases over the next few weeks.
Last weeks predictions:
1. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $75 million
2. Walk the Line $25 million
3. Chicken Little $20 million
4. Zathura $9 million
5. Get Rich or Die Tryin’ $9 million
Yes I’m an idiot for thinking that Goblet of Fire would only make $75 million, but I’m also an even bigger moron for thinking that Get Rich or Die Tryin’ was going to make $9 million. What was I thinking?!?!? I think it’s about time I consider retiring from the box office predictions. I may have a grasp on why the movies gross what they do, but apparently that knowledge doesn’t appear until after the totals are released. Get Rich or Die Tryin’? Man………..I must’ve been drunk. Since I got the top 3 right (had to give myself a pat on the back for something), let’s give it one more shot and hopefully I can regain that magic that I never had.
Just Friends
1. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $68 million
2. Rent $40 million
3. Walk the Line $25 million
4. Just Friends $15 million
5. In the Mix $12 million
I want to hear from you guys what you think the totals are. Agree with me?
Disagree? E-mail (vince@canmag.com)
me your totals and I'll post the person who comes closest to the actual
totals.
Stay tuned for updates.
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