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Weekend Box Office Overview 1-30
By Vince Palomarez | Images property of respective holders.
Nanny McPhee draws family back to the theatres.
January 30 Box Office Overview
1. Big Momma’s House 2 $28 million (1st week of release): Eventually I knew a film would come around to disprove my five year sequel theory (any sequel released more than five years after the original is doomed), but of all the sequels that could, never in my wildest dreams did I think Big Momma’s House 2 was going to be the film. I know that the first film was a big hit ($117 million domestically), but was there really a need for a sequel? Especially a sequel that’s six years too late? Apparently so. Perhaps the daily repeated viewings on the USA network and TBS kept the movie fresh enough in fans minds to support it to the tune of $28 million. Or was it the allure of seeing the horrified image of Martin Lawrence (as Big Momma) dressed in a gold bathing suit and braids running along the beach that brought audiences in? More than likely it’s because audiences are tired of seeing drama after drama and anything remotely funny was going to win
their price of admission. Whatever the reason, with a production budget of only $40 million, Big Momma’s House 2 is off to a great start. There is a fairly good chance that it could take a huge drop next week, but there is no doubt that the film should at least recoup the production costs. The big test for Big Momma will be next week. With the horror film When a Stranger Calls being the only major release next week it will be interesting to see if audiences will still come to check this film out or if it was purely a one week wonder. One thing’s for certain, the $28 million weekend of Big Momma’s House 2 is a huge boost to the flagging career of Martin Lawrence. The man’s career was getting really close to “Direct-to-DVD” territory for quite some time. The successful opening of Big Momma’s House 2 has given him a pulse, but the film’s continued success is necessary to fully reviving his career.
2. Nanny McPhee $14 million (1st week of release): Here was another surprise. Despite its current success overseas, I really didn’t think this film had the legs to push past the rest of the competition and score a respectable take this weekend. I was expecting it to finish in the bottom part of the top 10, but a slew of positive reviews and the need for more family viewing were the main factors in Nanny McPhee’s surprise success. Universal made an excellent move releasing the film when they did. Nanny McPhee should have one more week to capitalize on the lack of family films before the Feb. 10th release of Curious George makes its presence felt. By then it should be safe to say that Nanny McPhee could have a respectable total of around $30 million which is a good total for an out of the box family film.
3. Underworld: Evolution $11.1 million ($44.3 million total): You hear that sound? That’s the panic alarm set off by the people at Sony/Screen Gem after seeing their film drop 59% from last week’s number one spot. To put this in perspective for you, any film that drops 40-45% in its second week is considered acceptable, 45-50% is cause for a little concern, 50-55% is definite concern and 55%+ means you better pack up your office and get the hell out of town because your film is headed into disastrous territory. Despite the 59% drop, Underworld: Evolution’s $11 million weekend brought its box office total to $44 million which puts it close to matching the first Underworld’s total box office of $52 million. Usually the goal is for sequels to out gross the original, but after seeing this week’s numbers, I think they would be satisfied with at least matching the original. Even with the current downward spiral Underworld: Evolution is experiencing it should have no problem matching this total. Right now that seems to be the one and only goal they can achieve, because there seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel for this film. Expect the big drops to continue the next few weeks and look for it on DVD in no time.
4. Annapolis $7.7 million (1st week of release): Here is a situation where despite a weak unoriginal plot and a majority of negative reviews, a heavy advertising campaign was able to help it to a respectable opening weekend. Face it, if Disney really didn’t make an effort to shove this film down our throats over the past month would you even care if this film opened? I know the majority of you (smart movie fans that you are, especially since you read this) wouldn’t care, which is why Annapolis was only able to attract an audience good enough for $7 million. If I was Disney, I would give the PR firm who promoted Annapolis a huge bonus because there is no way in hell this film would have done so without them. I’m going to go out on a limb here and nominate Annapolis as next week’s biggest loser in terms of percentage drop from week to week. Annapolis has no steam behind it and should be content to take whatever money they can and get out why they can. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Annapolis end its theatrical run with only $18-20 million…..and I think even that total is a little too much. We’re going to have to follow up on this one.
5. Hoodwinked $7.4 million ($37 million total): Even though Hoodwinked hasn’t been performing as well other animated films released in the past few months (Chicken Little, Wallace and Gromit), it still continues to slowly build an audience, dropping only 29% in its seventh week of release. The seven weeks of release may be a little deceptive seeing as how the film spent more than a month in limited release, but the fact that it has escaped the dreaded 50%+ drop is pretty impressive. For some reason families are finding some kind of connection with Hoodwinked despite its un-family friendly PG rating attached to it. We all know that PG rating doesn’t seem bad at all, but for some reason most studios prefer an animated film to always get saddled with a G rating in order to maximize the family potential. Props have to go out to the Weinstein’s for taking a big risk--especially since they are still trying to establish their new studio—and they are definitely reaping the benefits. Hoodwinked may never gross $100 million, but if it continues on this pace, there is no doubt it could easily reach the $50 million mark which is definitely a success for such an unknown film.
Brokeback Mountain Holds
6. Brokeback Mountain $6.3 million ($50.8 million total)
7. Glory Road $5 million ($34.7 million total)
8. Last Holiday $4.8 million ($32.6 million total)
9. The Chronicles of Narnia $4.4 million ($277 million total)
10. The Matador $3.8 million ($5.5 million total)
After some moderate success during their first two weeks of release, both Glory Road and Last Holiday took a huge nose dive in standings. Both films dropped more than 40% from last week and look to be on their way out of the top 10 by next week.
Brokeback Mountain on the other hand continues to thrive on all the accolades it’s been getting on the award circuit. Even though it dropped out of the top 5 (after making its debut two months into release), Brokeback Mountain continues its string of minor week to week drops (14% this week) on its way to box office respectability. So far the film has pulled in a box office total of $50 million and if it continues on this path should have no problem hitting the $75 million barrier by the time the Academy Awards roll around.
Chronicles of Narnia continues to move further up the charts of the top grossing films of all time. With another $4 million in the bank, Chronicles of Narnia has made a total of $277 million so far which is good enough for 28th on the list of all time moneymakers. If Chronicles of Narnia can continue to cling to life, like it has the past few weeks, it has a fairly good shot of breaking the top 20 which would be the icing on the cake of a film that has already been one of the top moneymakers of the year
Box office predictions from last week:
1. Underworld: Evolution $15 million
2. Big Momma’s House 2 $14 million
3. Hoodwinked $8 million
4. Brokeback Mountain $8 million
5. Annapolis $7 million
Lets see….where did I go wrong? Oh, I know, I gave way too much credit to Underworld: Evolution and not enough for Big Momma. I knew that Underworld was going to take a big hit this weekend, but I never imagined it being more than 45%. Nor did I think that Big Momma’s House 2 was going to kill it this weekend (and from what I read the folks at Fox felt the same way). Well, my string of guessing the top five films has yet to get back on track, but I think next week’s predictions should be fairly easy enough to get the ball rolling again…
Box office predictions for next week:
1. When a Stranger Calls $22 million
2. Big Momma’s House 2 $12 million
3. Nanny McPhee $9 million
4. Hoodwinked $5 million
5. Brokeback Mountain $5 million
I want to hear from you guys what you think the totals are. Agree with me? Disagree? E-mail (vince@canmag.com) me your totals and I'll post the person who comes closest to the actual totals.
Stay tuned for updates.
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Vince Palomarez
Sources: Images property of respective holders.
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